The Homely Scientist

This came out last week I think.  Turns out the folks at the Goddard Institute made a bad assumption about their data and got called on it:

The Goddard Institute claimed that the cause of the error was a switch to a new data-collection system in 2000. This led to an incorrect assumption that the old and new methods matched, which was proved to be untrue.

According to latest figures, 1934 is now the hottest year on record in the US at 1.25C higher than normal. 1998, the previous front-runner, is now second at 1.23C, followed by 1921 at 1.15C.

The old system put 1998 first, with 1.24C above normal, with 1934 at 1.23C. Next was 2006, now relegated to fourth place, which was placed at 1.23C. Source: Blogger proves Nasa wrong on climate change - Times Online

Now before you start the “see I told you so…” stuff the variation as hundredths and thousandths of a degree different.  Almost, IMHO, within the range of error.  However, that being said, this doesn’t mean that climate change isn’t happening.

We all know it is.  Climate data are extremely variable and looking at just one factor isn’t going to give you the whole picture.  Looking at ice sheets, plant and ecosystem changes, animal migration patterns.  Together these give a bigger picture.  And it ain’t a pretty one.  I have a long-ish post in my head on climate analogues … essentially explaining what my area of study was.

Maybe later this week I’ll write it up.  Gotta find my old data … which if you can find it online (it is online) and put a link in the comments … well I’ll give you Google points (no prizes right now, sorry … although I have a cool book on electricity!).  That’s it.  First person who puts a link in the comments to my masters thesis data gets my review copy of Much ado about almost nothing … which is a book I’m almost done reading and is a really interesting look at the history of electricity.

Here’s a hint … my data is with NOAA.

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While coastal upwelling is generally a good thing, like many things in nature, you can have too much of a good thing.  In this case the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich deep water causes not only a plankton bloom, but the death and decomposition of the buggers have a dark side:

Unlike the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico, which is caused by fertilizer washing down the Mississippi River, the Oregon dead zone is triggered by northerly winds, which create an ocean-mixing condition called upwelling.

This brings low-oxygen waters from deep in the ocean close to shore, and spreads nitrogen and other nutrients through the water column, kicking off a population boom of plankton, the tiny plants and animals at the foundation of the ocean food web.

Normally, this is good for salmon, giving them lots of food to eat. But when huge amounts of plankton die, they fall to the bottom of the ocean, where they decompose, depleting the water of oxygen. Source: Wired News - AP News

How is this connected to global warming?  It’s all in the winds.  Stronger northerly winds cause the upwelling.  Stronger winds come from the increased energy in the whole system because the Earth is getting warmer.  Remember a large portion of our climate and weather is powered by heat.  Hotter, more energy, more energy, stronger winds and storms ….. and so on.

Is it too late?  Frankly I don’t think so, if you think in geologic time.  Pity is that humans might not be around to see things work out.  Or maybe that’s a good thing.

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