Global warming just from changes in cosmic ray output?
Fox News is reporting (and not in an unbiased way BTW) that a recently published study correlates cosmic ray output from the Sun to the formation of lower atmosphere clouds. Lower atmosphere clouds are the ones that have a significant effect on the warming and cooling of the planet. Okay. So the study found that lower cosmic ray emissions, less cloud cover, less cloud cover warmer Earth. Okay. Now since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution we’ve had rising temperatures and lower cosmic ray input. So is it only the Sun responsible for Global Warming?
Frankly I don’t know. Sounds like it could be factor, but I’d like to see more than just lab studies. I’d like to see something like using temperature analogues for the past connected to cosmic ray output in the past. Does this pattern repeat over time? Was this a one off?
The way Fox portrays this, however, is a giant conspiracy against the research. It isn’t getting picked up because it runs counter to conventional wisdom. Okay, maybe. Maybe also the scientific community is still digesting this one. Maybe, and I think this is a good reason, this is a pretty tough thing to wrap ones head around, even for a science journalist.
This is what really bugs me. The author of the story is biased against the CO2 theory explaining global warming. Me? Sure I think it’s CO2, but this is an interesting bit of information and I’m intrigued. I also think that regardless of what is causing global warming, we have to get better at conserving energy. To write something that people could conclude that, hey it isn’t my fault, let’s drive our Hummer two blocks to the store instead of walking … is irresponsible IMHO.
My job now, as a scientist, is to ask some folks I know and respect for their opinions and get back to you.
Hat tip: Meddle
Tags: global warming, CO2, cosmic rays, scientific bias
October 23rd, 2006 at 8:46 pm
I thought I’d chime in with my input. There is no way a complex problem such as global warming is due to only one factor. The problem with studies such as the one you’ve mentioned is that they are taking a too narrow view.
Further, you can find a correlation between just about anything you care to look for. My favorite is the correlation between Average Global Temperature and the Number of Pirates (see the Flying Spaghetti Monster website).
Cosmic ray output may affect cloud cover, but I doubt it. The earth’s atmosphere is an extremely complex system and is governed and affected by many things, not the least of which is the emission of greenhouse gases from the earth’s surface. Cosmic ray emission may affect the plants which in turn affects the clouds, but I really couldn’t say.
I work at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Co and specifically, I observe the sun every day. I can promise you that what the scientists DON’T know about the sun would shock you.
The atmospheric scientists, I’ve spoken are looking at many causes for global warming, not too many I know are talking about cosmic ray output.
That doesn’t mean it isn’t a factor, I’m just sayin’.