Homely Scientist

While the tragedy of 9/11 is on our minds, there has, perhaps, been some good come from the experience.  We all know that the world is poised for another flu pandemic.  We also know from the SARS experience that rapid jet travel figures prominently into the spread of disease.  Via Quirks and Quarks comes word of a study looking at the onset of flu season right after 9/11:

After the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, air travel in North America was restricted and many people chose not to fly. This reduction in flying pushed the start of the U.S. flu season back by two weeks. While the researchers can’t pin down exactly what happened, part of the reason seems to be timing; a high number of people flying in September predicts a heavy flu season, possibly because new flu variants appear around this time of year. If travel is cut back, less of the new types of flu enter the United States. In France, where there weren’t any flight restrictions, the flu season happened on its usual schedule.

Now, what can be learned here?  What can we do with this new information (it isn’t knowledge until we process and do something with it)?  The first thing that hit me is that global flu surveillance needs to a high, high priority.  Maybe even to the point of: if you’re sick, you don’t fly or fly with a mask on.  If there is a potential for a flu outbreak, as inconvenient as it might be, I think massive restrictions in air travel will be required.  The problem is, if we aren’t watching, we might miss it before it’s too late.

If we can isolate outbreaks, then we can buy time for vaccines and treatments to be dispensed and the worst case scenario from happening: global flu pandemic.

Tags: air travel, flu pandemic

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